North Korea: Getting Beyond Brinkmanship
Setup
US officials have cited North Korea as the hardest intelligence collection target in the world; the problem of understanding its opaque leadership has challenged two generations of policymakers. Today, the rambunctiousness of its nuclear program belies a bleak, troubled economy, where millions face starvation and the regime faces such cash and technology shortfalls that it wasn’t clear it had a plane capable of flying to a Trump-Kim summit. What’s the future of the so-called Hermit Kingdom, nuclear or not?
- 2018 Festival
- World
The jury’s still out on whether 2018 denuclearization talks were worthwhile
When Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump sat across from each other in Singapore in June of 2018, it was a truly historic meeting. But was it a productive one? Kevin Rudd and Victor Cha aren’t so sure:
Will North Korea ever reveal the full extent of its nuclear arsenal?
The next step in North Korean denuclearization is something that’s been eluding negotiators for decades, according to Rudd. In order for the US or other countries to achieve what they call CVID (complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization), North Korea first has to disclose the entirety of their nuclear arsenal. If North Korea doesn’t detail its entire arsenal, how can anyone be sure North Korea is in full compliance with any agreement they make?
Big IdeaIf we’re going to be talking about denuclearization, then the bottom line is we’ve got to know what we’re dealing with. So we will need, sooner or later, a declaration by the North Koreans of the totality of their nuclear capability.Kevin Rudd
What could North Korea be offered to get rid of its nuclear program?
Victor Cha has a blunt answer to Dickerson’s question about what could entice North Korea to denuclearize:
-
John Dickerson: Victor, I feel like we’ve heard so much about how North Korea’s prestige is wrapped up in its nuclear program. What could we give them to give up their nuclear program?
-
Victor Cha: Frankly, I think there’s nothing we can give them to get rid of their nuclear program. They started landscaping the ground for this program in 1962, which was two years before the Chinese exploded a nuclear device. They devoted a good portion of their national resources since then to this program and in December of last year they said, ‘we’ve accomplished our goal.’ So the notion that, after all that time they're ready to sit with President Trump or Secretary Pompeo and then push it all across the table and say normalized relations, peace treaty, these sorts of things; it’s hard for me to imagine. However, this is not to say that the North Koreans don’t want normalized relations, peace treaty, access to international financial institutions, lifting of sanctions. They want all those things, but they want those things ultimately with some nuclear capability. In the end, they want to have their cake and eat it too.
Don’t rely on China to back the US and its allies in talks with North Korea
Learn More
Additional Information
Glossary
CVID: complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization
Explore More
World
The world seems to be moving and evolving faster than ever before, and democratic ideals are under threat in many countries around the globe. New York Times columnist and jour...
The international community faces unprecedented threats. What will geopolitical arrangements look like going forward? Is it time to rethink America’s relationship with China?...
Populations around the world have been electing more and more autocratic leaders in the past couple decades, via supposedly free, fair, and democratic elections. The freedom o...
At the 2023 Aspen Ideas Festival, we dug into some of the most important and fascinating issues of our time, from rebuilding trust in our institutions and the promise and peri...
In this new Aspen Ideas format, all attendees gather each morning to kick off the day by exploring a current issue of deep complexity. With heightened political tensions an...
With the dream of the Oslo Accords long in the rear-view mirror and no prospect of an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians ahead, is it time to give up on the two-state...
In this new Aspen Ideas format, all attendees gather each morning to kick off the day by exploring a current issue of deep complexity. For decades, American policy regardin...
How fast can the world really move off hydrocarbons, and are we underestimating deep macroeconomic analyses of the energy transition in our policymaking? Two financiers delve...
The war in Ukraine has once again highlighted the importance of international alliances, and that is certainly evident on the African continent, where the world’s superpowers...
As Israel marks its 75th birthday, the existential challenges it faces don’t only come from geopolitical vulnerabilities. How will the Jewish state confront internal divisions...
Hostage-taking presents nations with a conundrum: How can governments bring their citizens home while also preventing further captures? The United States’s top hostage negotia...
The Afternoon of Conversation is the Aspen Ideas Festival's pinnacle programming moment. Over 2,000 people gather in the Benedict Music Tent, an open-air venue with acoustics...
With renewed conflict on the international stage, India’s decades-long policy of nonalignment, together with its surpassing China as the most populous nation, have arguably po...
Ongoing war in Ukraine and the resulting tensions between the West, Russia, and China have made the NATO alliance all the more significant, and yet perhaps more vulnerable. Wh...
Since the dawn of the Olympics, sports have been a contest of global powers. Today, how are sports used as a means of conducting foreign policy — for better and for worse?
Across the globe, free and fair elections have given rise to autocratic regimes. Have we underestimated the fragility of democracy and overestimated its value? (Book signing w...
Does going electric mean buying lithium from Russia and Venezuela? What happens if the United States takes carbon action while competitors don’t? Experts weigh in on the geopo...
The festival kicks off with thought leaders sharing fresh ideas about bridging divides, having better conversations, and encouraging creativity. A conversation with Saudi Arab...
We are in a golden age for organized crime and corruption, according to watchdog groups. Bad actors have spent decades building tangled webs of enablers and tactics, and they...
Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and since then, the war has proven longer and costlier than what the Kremlin might have expected. Ukrainian resistanc...